A major victory for O on Iran

A Major Victory for President Obama on Iran – Jeffrey Goldberg – International – The Atlantic

Much credit in delaying Iran goes to the unknown inventor of Stuxnet, the miracle computer virus, which has bollixed-up Iran’s centrifuges; much credit goes to the Mossad and the CIA and the Brits and God knows who else, who are working separately and in tandem to subvert the Iranian program, and a great deal of credit must go to, yes, President Barack Obama, who has made stopping Iran one of his two or three main foreign policy priorities over the past two years. He did the difficult work of pulling together serious multilateral sanctions against Iran; he has convinced the Israelis — at least he has partially convinced some Israelis — that he has placed the prestige of his presidency behind this effort, and that he sincerely and deeply understands why it is in no one’s interest to see Iran with a bomb, and he has supported, in ways that I only know the most general way, some very hard-edged counterproliferation programs, programs whose existence proves, among other things, that he is capable of real and decisive toughness.

What all this means is that the West — in combination with Iran’s own incompetence — has created a bit of breathing space for itself. David Ignatius:

The delays in the Iranian program are important because they add strategic warning time for the West to respond to any Iranian push for a bomb. U.S. officials estimate that if Iran were to try a “break out” by enriching uranium at Natanz to the 90 percent level needed for a bomb, that move (requiring reconfiguration of the centrifuges) would be detectable — and it would take Iran one to two more years to make a bomb.

 

It is important to remember that Iranian intentions are unchanged, until proven otherwise, and it is also important to remember that technical difficulties are surmountable, but it is definitely fair to say that the zero hour is not yet here. I spoke with one of the Israeli officials I quoted in my article last year about the coming confrontation between Israel and Iran, and he put the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran in the next year at less than 20 percent — and he was one of the Israelis who felt, in the spring of last year, that it would be necessary for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities by the end of 2011. “People have very different opinions inside the defense establishment,” he said, when I reached him, “but it’s clear to all analysts that the virus and the sanctions are working better than we thought.”


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5 comments on “A major victory for O on Iran

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  1. Not yet a victory for Obama and all of us, but the imposition of new sanctions was important, and we’ve stopped Iranian momentum after a decade of blundering and floundering that allowed the Iranians room to expand and scope to escape the force of international criticism while they did.

  2. @ fuster:
    There’s victory and then there’s victory. Not a call for kissing strangers in spontaneous mass celebrations… but, assuming the analysis is accurate, a quieter victory, success at warding off what would have been a major negative and potentially out-of-control situation, and significantly improving the chances that it can be handled more peacefully than not. Also decreases the chances of a NeoConical resurgence…

  3. @ fuster:
    I may not have understood the teaching correctly, but I think that if you ever do the Tarzan thing, you’re supposed to do it even if the evil ones detonate a dirty bomb in your laundry hamper. However, since the Tarzan thing isn’t likely ever to be generally adopted, maybe instead we can institute a mass 3 Stooges walla-walla bing bang thing.

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