Russia Recognizes Palestinian State – Who’s Next?

Russian Leader Visits Palestine, Recognizes New State « Tikun Olam-תקון עולם: Make the World a Better Place

This is what a foreign ministry official told Ynetnews:

“We are utterly blind to what’s going on.”

I’d have thought blindness, both moral and political, was a chronic condition in the MFA.  But apparently it’s striking them particularly hard when the entire working foreign policy apparatus disappears.

I also rather like the MFA’s accusation that the PA is engaged in a “political intifada” to get the world to recognize the new state.  That’s a rather cool slogan which I think any Palestinian should be proud to wear on their sleeve.

Fortunately, the NY Times didn’t ignore the event, neither did Haaretz:

President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia met on Tuesday with the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, in the West Bank oasis town of Jericho and reaffirmed his country’s support for a Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem.

Palestinian leaders hailed the visit as historic, noting that this was the first time such a high-profile international figure had gone to Palestinian territory independently of a visit to Israel.

Mr. Medvedev, on his first trip to the area as president, was scheduled to visit Israel as well, but that part of his itinerary had to be postponed because of a strike by employees of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Foreign Ministry officials, striking for more pay and better conditions, said this month that they were unable to prepare for the planned visit.

There are many important aspects to this declaration, among them that Russia is the first nations among the Quartet to endorse Palestinian statehood.  I wonder if China won’t be far behind.  Both countries enjoy taking opportunities to tweak American policies and this would give them a chance to do so, since the Obama administration has foolishly declared itself unalterably opposed to such “nonsense” (largely at the behest of Israel itself).

Russia’s message comes on top of announcements by a variety of South American nations that they too recognize such a state.  Rumors are flying that Spain, under its Social Democratic governing party, may be the first EU country to do so. After that, a number of other EU countries may follow suit.  Germany, of course, would be one of the most important and its chancellor’s relations with the Netanyahu government are none too warm.  But the Holocaust hangs over Germany perhaps too heavily for it to be an early adopter of this position.

Once a threshold of 40 or 50 countries endorse statehood for Palestine, including among them Russia, China, much of the EU, and virtually all of Latin America, can the Security Council refuse to deliberate the issue as the PA has requested?  It will be hard-pressed to refuse.  If it doesn’t, that will put the US in the awkward position of vetoing Palestinian statehood in the Security Council.  It will not look good for a mediating party to the conflict dousing water on the national aspirations of the Palestinian people.

There is a small chance that all of this is a development that Obama secretly endorses as a cudgel to use against Bibi in his own negotiations with him.  In that case, there is again a small possibility the U.S. would allow the Security Council to debate the issue and wouldn’t veto it if it came to a vote.  That would be interesting.

Another interesting aspect of Medvedev’s visit and endorsement is that Russia now plays a parallel role in midwiving Palestinian independence that the U.S. once played before the UN Security Council in 1948, when it led the international movement to recognize Israel.  We were on the right side of history once, but apparently no longer.

10 comments on “Russia Recognizes Palestinian State – Who’s Next?

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  1. Gee, it’s almost like Medvedev didn’t make any dramatic announcement about anything.

    Medvedev said Tuesday during a visit to Jericho that Moscow had effectively recognized Palestine back in 1988 and has no intention of changing its position now.

    As I recall, when Russia did that whatever in 1988, Israel was immediately plunged into chaos.

  2. If there were any exiled Chechen leadership left, we might return the favor, after all the Russian bloodfeud with the Chechens, is only a little
    short of 200 years old, since the time o Yermolov

  3. @ fuster:
    Warnt Russia back then. Strikes me that the “news” is probably halfway between the blogger’s trumpeting and your dismissal. A re-affirmation by post-Soviet Russia of the Soviet position of 1988 at this moment is better than a poke in the Palestinian eye with a sharp stick. It’s also of interest that the accident of the Foreign Ministry strike makes it possible for the president of an important nation to visit Palestine officially, but not Israel. It’s the kind of positive but ambiguous step whose meaning, if any, may develop in subsequent action and interpretation. We’ll see if the “political intifada” develops any momentum.

  4. Also if you browse through the author’s blog – I believe his name is Richard Silverstein – you get very on-the-ground, detailed, acerbic reporting from a very leftist, peace-nowish Jew in Israel. Kind of what the blogosphere is for, whether you agree with him or not… And a tribute to Israel’s political culture, as George might be quick to point out.

  5. Let see whlo does this really help, Israelis are reminded of the land that many emigrated from, both in the Jackson/Vanik era, and going back, one of the original spurs to Zionism, the country that was in part the patron of the PLo into the late 80s, political ‘intifada’ that would seem as pragmatic as saying ‘ghazavat’ in another context

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