High Noon for the Mitt Contract

September 13, 2012 | Posted in notes, Politics | Tagged with: , | 9 Comments ↓

I don’t normally take InTrade very seriously, but as a former daytrader and not just as a longtime confirmed non-fan of the Mittster, I find this kind of price move in a contract something to behold.

Closing Prices chart as of High Noon PST – Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012:

There’s usually a tradable bounce, sometimes a breathtaking recovery move, in a heavily traded stock undergoing this kind of collapse. That was one of the few trade set-ups, and one of the most exciting to act on, that I ever got any good at – but I’m not convinced at all that InTrade is the kind of market where that sort of thing is doable.

9 comments on “High Noon for the Mitt Contract”

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    • actually it’s a bag one-quarter full of extra-large peanuts, strangely enough. Comes out to about half. Plus a few styrofoam to fill it out some.

      Contract still falling today, but not as steep as y-day, still way outside the 20-day standard deviation…

      Reply

      • I’m not, you’re traders arre. Romney as the Repub candidate has a floor that he’s close to and through which he is not going to fall unless conjoined with a dead boy or live Islamist girl.

        Reply

        • true, but the Mitt contract pays 0 whether Mitt get 268 electoral votes or 0 electoral votes. Now, if I were a trader, and Intrade a sufficiently liquid market, I’d be a buyer on the first sign of a bounce in whatever relevant time frame precisely because sometime over the next few weeks he’ll probably get some kind of good news or an outlier poll or something. But it’s a binary decision in the end, and I’ve always thought he was going to lose, so, barring Obama w/dead boy etc., I’d unload the contract as soon as I’d made any profit on it at all.

          Reply
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