High Noon for the Mitt Contract

September 13, 2012 | Posted in notes, Politics | Tagged with: Intrade, Romney | 9 Comments ↓

I don’t normally take InTrade very seriously, but as a former daytrader and not just as a longtime confirmed non-fan of the Mittster, I find this kind of price move in a contract something to behold.

Closing Prices chart as of High Noon PST – Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012:

There’s usually a tradable bounce, sometimes a breathtaking recovery move, in a heavily traded stock undergoing this kind of collapse. That was one of the few trade set-ups, and one of the most exciting to act on, that I ever got any good at – but I’m not convinced at all that InTrade is the kind of market where that sort of thing is doable.

9 comments on “High Noon for the Mitt Contract”

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fuster

x
Ignored
says:

September 13, 2012 at 7:12 pm

I don’t understand. what does the chart say that people are trying to trade Romney for?

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- to fuster
  
  CK MacLeod
  
  x
  Ignored
  says:
  
  September 13, 2012 at 7:34 pm
  
  A half-eaten bag of peanuts, of course.
  
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fuster

x
Ignored
says:

September 14, 2012 at 4:37 pm

is it the bag that’s half-eaten or is it a full bag of half-eaten peanuts?

expiring minds want to know

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- to fuster
  
  CK MacLeod
  
  x
  Ignored
  says:
  
  September 14, 2012 at 4:59 pm
  
  actually it’s a bag one-quarter full of extra-large peanuts, strangely enough. Comes out to about half. Plus a few styrofoam to fill it out some.
  
  Contract still falling today, but not as steep as y-day, still way outside the 20-day standard deviation…
  
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fuster

x
Ignored
says:

September 14, 2012 at 5:08 pm

should value continue to fall, will bags of pre-eaten peanuts come into play?

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- to fuster
  
  CK MacLeod
  
  x
  Ignored
  says:
  
  September 14, 2012 at 5:19 pm
  
  yes, and then pre-eaten and pre-digested bag fragments, both paper and cellophane. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet.
  
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  - to CK MacLeod
    
    fuster
    
    x
    Ignored
    says:
    
    September 14, 2012 at 5:23 pm
    
    I’m not, you’re traders arre. Romney as the Repub candidate has a floor that he’s close to and through which he is not going to fall unless conjoined with a dead boy or live Islamist girl.
    
    Reply
    - to fuster
      
      CK MacLeod
      
      x
      Ignored
      says:
      
      September 14, 2012 at 5:33 pm
      
      true, but the Mitt contract pays 0 whether Mitt get 268 electoral votes or 0 electoral votes. Now, if I were a trader, and Intrade a sufficiently liquid market, I’d be a buyer on the first sign of a bounce in whatever relevant time frame precisely because sometime over the next few weeks he’ll probably get some kind of good news or an outlier poll or something. But it’s a binary decision in the end, and I’ve always thought he was going to lose, so, barring Obama w/dead boy etc., I’d unload the contract as soon as I’d made any profit on it at all.
      
      Reply
CK MacLeod

x
Ignored
says:

September 14, 2012 at 5:49 pm

For ref here’s today’s Obama chart:

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High Noon for the Mitt Contract

9 comments on “High Noon for the Mitt Contract”

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