then everything else is noise in Egypt

The key point from the Schmitt in Cairo perspective is adduced by Mustapha Ajbaili, writing in Al Arabiya:

In between the polarizing views, lies the reality that many choose to ignore. The Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized and powerful group in the country. All other forces are divided and in many instances have failed to consolidate their efforts to provide a viable alternative.

Any analysis of the current Egyptian moment that does not explain, any proposal that does not confront, and any criticism, prognostication, or moralistic condemnation that does not comprehend this fact – if indeed it is a fact, as seems likely – is an argument for social-political disintegration, and will sooner or later will be swept aside.

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13 comments on “then everything else is noise in Egypt

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  1. Well they do, that is rather clear, Arabia was not naturally Wahhabi, either, they had gaps under Ottoman tutelage, in part due to inflighting between factions

  2. it’s may turn out not to be fact at all……any any analysis that posits the MB as being most powerful because it’s “not divided” is only dealing out a dubiety .

    of course, other folk would agree with the more traditional view that the armed forces in Egypt is by far the most powerful group….

    • Depends on how you define “power.” It may flow from the barrel of a gun, but someone has to give the orders. The armed forces, by their omissions, have already admitted that they can’t/won’t rule on their own behalf, though they will step in to prevent total disintegration. That makes Egypt no different from every other country on Earth.

      • the armed forces, by their omission, ceased ruling directly after 60 years or so of so doing……that doesn’t mean that they’re now without political activity or that they’ve shed any great part of their power

        • Except it wasn’t some abstraction “the armed forces” that ruled: It was particular individuals and autocrats capable of commanding obedience and treated as legitimate. That’s what gave them political power. That seems to be over. If SCAF or some other military configuration moved to re-assert control by short-circuiting the political/revolutionary/constitutional process, it would face the real prospect of disintegration – loss of external support, loss of discipline, fracturing, even civil war – though a total descent into anarchy and violence might set a predicate for a re-legitimation of military rule under whatever window dressing.

  3. There is no process, more often then not, the liberal faction was not able to influence things, the last time was Zaghoul in 1924-25, Mahfouz illustrates how it was that his step down was taken in Palace Walk, the Brotherhood came to note, not long after that, the military has been in charge since 1952, when they arose as the Free Officers withe the concurrence of the Brotherhood, but they quickly found themselves at odds,

    • Don’t see where you get that. I’ve avoided offering any characterization of the MB. I have only secondhand evidence related by obviously biased sources. In some fantasy reality, I might prefer a liberal democratic Egypt, but no one’s asking me, I don’t live there, the broad electorate gave a majority to the Islamists, and most of the rest of the vote to the felool. The future of Egypt one way or another seems to involve coming out the other side of authoritarianism, religious and otherwise, not the imposition of readymade liberal democratic and Western capitalist culture.

      There is a strain of contradiction running through that otherwise informative article. We’re told that the MB exercises an iron grip on dissent and systematically pre-empts it, yet the chief evidence other than the cursory description of indoctrination and internal hierarchies is the rise of dissenters, including at the highest levels.

  4. They have a purpose, and I take them at their word, they have been waiting more than 80 years, for this opportunity, and they mean to take advantage of it, the Ikwan said they would not field a candidate, they did, they said they would contest 30% of the districts, they did 70%, we’ve seen this story time and time again, it does not end well.

  5. The question, is over tactics, now frankly some in the Brotherhood, are probably a little ticked at Morsy, for validating the opposition’s misgivings, the subterfuge was supposed to go on for a while longer, till they could arrange their own version of

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