Commenter Archive

Comments by Sully

On “Real and Unreal Threats from Iran

I have no problem with your analysis of the difficulty and risks associated with sneaking one little bomb into Tel Aviv. And no problem with your damage projections (although I think the psychological effect would be to destroy or near destroy Israel by causing everyone in it with any sort of option to leave to do so.)

But I think you're far too sanguine in assuming Iran can't develop delivery means and build numbers of bombs more powerful than what you're writing about. The technologies involved are 65 years old and counting.

On “From Somalia without love

@ CK MacLeod:

There is no one in this discussion who's angel count has changed by more than one or two percent in the months we've been having it.

Meanwhile this thread started as a rather harsh discussion of the position of a woman who knows more about Islam in practice than anyone here will ever know. Sure she's bitter; and it's no surprise she's immoderate. Having someone cut off parts of one's anatomy and beat one probably tends to have that effect.

But that doesn't mean she isn't right.

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@ strangelet:

Not true. I've yet to find anyone else worthy of knowledge of all of the the particular revelation delivered exclusively to me. And there are other religions that have felt that way although I'm too lazy to look them up.

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And, had the Austrian Corporal succeeded in establishing his thousand year state I'm sure hundreds of quite learned apologists would even now be straining at gnats to put a reasonable gloss on the words in his book; operating in the same spirit as his minions who took considerable pains to set the stage for plausible deniability in the future of certain events that occurred in eastern Europe.

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@ Parson Logic T ReFog:

The equivalent of 'free election, one time' doesn't appeal to me even if it occurs by persuasion. Sharia appears to me to be a trapdoor.

@ CK MacLeod:

I've found several "decent" interpretation of the verse of the sword, some of which were almost as persuasive as the interpretation of events that Milwaukee fellow used to get those cops to give him back Konerak Sinthasomphone for further processing (just to show I'm versatile in making comparisons).

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@ CK MacLeod:

Incidently, that link was hardly soothing. The explication was vaguely similar to what Lindbergh might have written in the late 1930's about certain disturbing quotes from that Austrian Corporal's book.

Islam is just what it appears to be, a world conquering ideology. Some of its adherents are content to achieve gruadual conquest; and some are in a hurry.

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We may as well go on to a new topic. Strangelet will never get over the Crusades and I'll never get over the destruction of Byzantium and the forcible conversion of the inhabitants of the MENA states.

Besides, an angel appeared to me last night in a dream and said an eye for an eye is grossly inadequate.

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I have to go now, to do penance for my grandparents' complicity in changing Islam from a religion of peace to a radical suicide bomber generator because they voted for FDR.

Unless CK's Surah at 13 didn't mean what it plainly says, like all the Surah's of the Qur'an that don't proclaim peace, understanging and love to all the infidels in the world.

On “Flamesem & Japesem (in another universe though, so it’s OK)

Meanwhile, did someone write "epistemic closure"?

In search of a cynosure,
Toward eschatonic closure,
You find epistemes are closed for,
You can’t immanentize,
And attain worldly ayes,
Which shouldn’t surprise,
For that’s the ruling guys,
From the big kahuna’s assize.

Unfortunately I had to sign in to find that, so I find myself back to being Sully. But that doesn't mean I'm not still a bit frosted off.

On “The cost of Islamophobia

@ Rex Caruthers:

In that case,why wait?

Because many bad things in life that one fears never happen, so you don't take drastic, dangerous, costly and risky actions on the fear that they will happen. I think Israel is hoping we will eliminate the Iranian bomb threat while our government is maneuvering to put Israel into a position where it will feel forced to eliminate or at least push back the Iranian program.

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@ CK MacLeod:

I don't believe I've ever said in any venue that Hezbollah made that specific statement. And I've never cared. The verse of the sword is sufficient for me. Which is why I wrote the little ditty that seems to have put a twist in your shorts.

Incidently, I don't advocate war with all Muslims. I have no problem with any who clearly and forthrightly disavow the verse of the sword and a few other verses in the Koran that trouble me. Failing that they are at war with me if they tolerate among them elements attempting to carry out the intention of the verse of the sword.

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@ Rex Caruthers:

Do you want Israel to be in the unenviable position to be the first nation in history to preemptively nuke a nation to prevent the Nukee from having nukes.

No. What I said was that after Iran achieves nuclear capability sufficient to destroy Israel, Israel will almost surely go to a launch on warning preemptive posture. I think that once Iran has the capability and disperses launchers and warheads the only option Israel will have will be a very bad one, bad for Iran, bad for Israel, bad for everyone.

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@ fertiziling treefrog:

The game is working to no one’s advantage and certainly to the world’s detriment.

Your assertion then is that the game will not be played our because it is working to no one's advantage and to the world's detriment. The playing out of WW1 and any number of other "games" argues that the assertion is questionable.

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@ CK MacLeod:

I guess it’s a brand new concept for you that bearing false witness or passing on lies is wrong, and leads to trouble for all concerned.

What false witness and lies to you believe I have borne or passed on?

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@ fertiziling treefrog:

You mock; but the old saw that "the best defense is a good offense" is an old saw because it has withstood test in many places and times.

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@ Rex Caruthers:

Israel’s national survival is not in the slightest guarenteed by action that could result in WW3. In fact,an Israeli Nuke attack on Iran would force the US to prevent Israel from this action simply because WW3 is an existential threat to the US. There are a number of better options that guarantee the survival of the Jewish people. There is no government on Earth that is so important that its survival requires a Nuclear War. Period

1. I never said Israel's survival could be "guaranteed." The survival of none of us can be "guaranteed."
2. The U.S. could tell Israel not to attack, and it could apply harsh sanctions after an attack; but it could not stop Israel from attacking by surprise - except by attacking by surprise. . .
3. I suspect that in such a situation Israelis would be less concerned about "the survival of the Jewish people" than they would be about the survival of the people in Israel.
4. There is indeed "no government on Earth that is so important that its survival requires a Nuclear War" except when it's the only government with the power to stand between you and annihilation.

And, I think you make a wrong assumption when you suppose that any and all nuclear wars must escalate into "WW3." Herman Kahn certainly thought so and he thought pretty deeply about the subject.

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Plus, the only "defense" against nuclear weapons is dispersal of population and shelter building. Following Iranian acquisition of those weapons I would expect Israel to be very tempted by a greater Israel option including the entire West Bank and Gaza and the Sinai so as to disperse the Jewish population and put more of it in smaller centers with good shelters close to Muslim populations without the means to build shelters or perhaps even forbidden to build shelters.

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@ Rex Caruthers:

(2)FORCED??? Who’s Forcing Israel with their 200 Nukes

Iran will probably only have a few kiloton range nuclear weapons for some time; but Israel is small enough and has few enough concentrated population centers for its very existence to be endangered by that number. So, of necessity, Israel will have to go to a counterforce first strike policy if Iran fields deliverable nuclear weapons. Disarming Iran would be very hard and perhaps impossible for Israel with conventional weapons. Disarming Iran with the megaton range nuclear weapons Israel probably has would not be a challenge.

Plus, it's not inconceivable that the existence of a nuclear threat from Iran would both hollow out Israel and make its polity less moderate by prompting the emigration of those Israelis who can most easily emigrate. I suspect those Israelis (dual citizenship holders, technical elites, the wealthy, etc.) tend to be thse most likely to be influenced by world opinion.

So, down the road not very far from Iranian nuclear capability you have a besieged Israel whose leaders know that a hair trigger nuclear offense is the only (semi)guarantee of national survival answering to a polity dominated by holdouts.

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Counting the angels on the head of a pin,
Tends to be silly, but it isn’t a sin,
Parsing the intentions of Islamist thugs,
May not be a sin, but it won’t get you hugs,
Among other things it may get you wings,
And a harp you can play when the fat lady sings.

When people avow that their God has said,
And further attest that their Prophet has writ,
That they may not rest until you are dead,
Unless you bow, and scrape and submit. . .
Believe them.

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Counting the angels on the head of a pin,
May be quite silly, but it isn't a sin,
Parsing the intentions of Islamist thugs,
May not be a sin, but it won't get you hugs,
Among other things it may get you wings,
And a harp you can play when the fat lady sings.

"

@ CK MacLeod:

There's no need to find the original statement. Simply look for a more recent official statement by Hezbollah that unequivocally condemns the meaning of the original statement.

On “The Moon will probably still be there later on…

A good piece CK. Manned space flight has never made sense. Our progeny will eventually go to the stars as fertilized eggs carried by a robotic ship whose piloting may or may not be partially managed by a human mind in a machine.

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@ Rex Caruthers:

Liberals hate America;they love Western civilization.

Liberals hate America, Western civilization, ice cream, apple pie and themselves.

On “About those test results you’re (still) waiting for…

Tataglia was a pimp. He could never have outfought Santino.

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@ Rex Caruthers:

"But I didn't know until this day that it was Barzini all along. ..."