Comments on Look out below, the (other) sequel by CK MacLeod

she's functionally she... as she as she wants to be... it's the internet... you other guys know what TPM is?

TPM means Talking Points Memo to me, Desconocidita. The other alternatives that come up on a quick search seem even less relevant. Could you maybe every once in a while speak in words for us crusty old cons? It kind of culturally isolates you when you speak in abbreviated l33t or whatever the neo-/post-l33t term for being fashionably incomprehensible is.

And, for the record, I think a party that can't figure out what it thinks deserves to underperform, but the Ds are fielding such a tippy-top all-stupid team this year, they seem bound to give up a big part of the '06-'08 imbalance.

@ strangelet:
That's a pretty funny article about the R website. I stuck it in Recommended Browsing.

@ strangelet:
Twarnt moi, desconocidita, the spam filter ain't a big fan of comments that mention sex toys, bondage, porn, etc. Heck, I'm Zeus of this here Olympus, and I wouldn't be surprised if this comment gets filtrated.

@ narciso:
It's called "shoot the messenger." Some people have a lot of difficulty processing the difference between polls of registered voters and polls of likely voters and MOE. Ras openly describes his methodology. It measures what it measures, in the way that it measures it, nothing else. None of these polls qualifies as "scientific."

Has Silver adjusted his opinions on Ras since January?

(bold face and italics in the original):

If you’re running a news organization and you tend to cite Rasmussen’s polls disproportionately, it probably means that you are biased — it does not necessarily mean that Rasmussen is biased.

I wrote a post on the attack on Rasmussen at the time.

Speaking of Kos and outliers, it will be interesting to see who's closer, the polls putting Fiorina 20 points ahead in Kali, or the DKos/R2000 poll from last Friday putting her 20 points behind.

Interestingly, today's Raz poll has the PAI gap closing all the way back down to -12. Very volatile number.

@ bob:
Polls go up, polls go down, different polls measure different things. If I wanted to make the anti-Obama case, I'd point out that RealClear covers a longer span of time, and that the only thing keeping O in positive territory, barely, is the bulge he gets from a series of "all adults" polls from earlier in the month. If I wanted to make the no-reason-to-panic case I'd drag out the comparative presidential approval ratings charts.

@ Rex Caruthers:
Indeed. As I've pointed out before, even Jimmy Carter was reasonably well-positioned going into the last week of the 1980 campaign to be re-elected. If the Republicans merely succeed in convincing people that we're going over the falls, the Democrats still might convince people that they're offering a more comfortable barrel.

@ Rex Caruthers:
Probly, way things are going, sad to say, but depends on events and the popular will developed on the basis of those events. An optimist might say that the bases of a dynamic and even explosively growing economy merely need to be unleashed. Quite an optimist.

I perceive the popular will to be greatly in favor of fiscal restraint. The questions are how long that will last if the economy doesn't respond very favorably, and whether exogenous or seemingly exogenous events might come to dominate instead. If JEM's assessment of Obama is correct, and you say you agree, then we have not yet begun to suffer the full effects.