If unemployment stays high,2012 could produce another turnover surge. If there's another "disaster",like 9/11,or Weimar,well,Last in,First Out. All things being equal,Obama could win in 2012,despite being the "Weakest" President in my memory which goes back to Eisenhower,and I define weakest,in the sense that he was positioned in 2009,to make some coherent policy,but he made a mess of it,so far trying to be the great uniter.
Until,the Republicans find a unifying candidate like Reagan/Nixon,I'll assume Obama will win.
My dream election in 2012 would be Obama/Palin,but too often,my dreams fail to solidfy.