acat - China doesn’t even have the naval resources and skills to invade TAIWAN. I think North America and Africa are safe from invasion for good while.

CK MacLeod on June 4, 2009 at 11:17 AM

Mac ... no one on our side is saying anyone will invade the U.S.

What we're saying is that this guy's predictions for American dominance throughout the 21st century they are criminally psychedelic.

Again - you have expanding industrial / technical bases rising in China (and other places). True - the Chines PLAN can't challenge the U.S. Navy in blue water just yet - but the PLAN is modernizing quickly to do so. They may even be moving quicker than we can know - since it's alleged they are building many nuclear submarines in hollowed out mountainsides where they are out of sight of our satellites. What else are they building out there that we can't see?

Make no mistake - China is on the rise. China requires resources now - and lines of trade that it can GUARANTEE will remain open. This will necessitate the PLAN moving to "blue water" status. It has to happen. It will happen. Meanwhile we're building one nuclear submarine a year.

That's not a scorching pace.

We’re so conscious of our limitations and focused on ourselves that we’ve lost awareness of how far ahead of a country like China we still are in per-capita income, energy usage, production, etc., not to mention overall military power. Our “hollowed-out” manufacturing sector (accounting for something like 20% of our economy in 2007) is still larger than China’s entire economy.

CK MacLeod on June 4, 2009 at 12:33 AM

Well the facts are these ...

What you say about the Chinese economy not being "superhuman" is true - but the fact is - their standard of living is GOING UP.

Yeah - it's still lower than ours - but it's increasing. This means they can keep their people motivated and moving forward.

What do you think is about to happen to OUR standard of living?

And what do you think is going to happen to OUR motivation when the government begins to confiscate 50 percent of our incomes and then still can't deliver on it's pension, social security, and medicare programs?

We are about to run smack into a age wall. The baby boomers will be the most demanding of all retirees - no doubt. Yet we will move from 4 working adults supporting every retiree to 2 or less supporting every retiree.

And our government officials have no solution.

Our task is MORE CHALLENGING than China's.

I'd like to clarify one of my comments about "Carrier Battle Groups" being "out" and "ESG's In".

What I meant to say is - due to the lack of carriers - we've been filling the deployment gaps with Amphibs like Pelilieu.

Now, the official line is that we use these ESG's in order to cover more hot spots. That's only partially true. Sure, we cover more hot spots - but the ESG is not the ideal battle unit to cover it. We use ESG's simply beacause there are too many hot spots for our Carriers to cover.

A Carrier Strike Group is a moving piece of U.S. territory and it controls both the sea and air wherever it moves. Not so with the ESG. ESG-1 was able to field at most THREE of the four Harrier jets assigned to it. Readiness of the Harriers is pathetic - and they are not up to the task of intercepting air threats coming at the ESG. Now - we know that AEGIS cruisers escort ESG's - and AEGIS cruisers can shoot down any air threat quickly. However - the can't properly IDENTIFY an air threat. You may remember the case of the Iranian Air Bus we shot down in the Gulf back in the 1980's - proof that not ever "threatening" target on a radar screen is indeed threatening. As a result - WE IDENTIFY all targets now using multiple means - the primary one being Aircraft. If you can't get a Harrier off an Amphib quickly - the threat closes so fast you're left with fewer options. Eventually - you have to let the target overfly and pray for the best (that it's a harmless civvie) - or you have to shoot missiles. No one likes that situation.

I am a Submariner - but I have seen all communities. I'm loyal to my community - but I will tell you there is nothing on the planet like a Carrier Strike Group - and we don't have enough imo.

Hahaha! That guy is impossibly rosy!

Let me count the ways ...

*First - doesn't the "Nyah, Nyah, I got the best rock to sit on!" reasoning for continued American dominance ring a bit simplistic to you? Even if it's true - it's logical to assume that, the oceans - which have been shrinking since Chris Columbus due to technology - will eventually shrink away our little "island continent" advantage.

*Hey - don't the Aussies have the best geography?

*How about the fact that nuclear proliferation has FAILED and basically everyone's going to be building in them in their garages. They're going to be smaller too - and easier to smuggle.

*I hate to break it to you, but the U.S. Navy's dominance is not certain.

**Most of the fleet moves on OIL. My Aegis Cruiser was often tied to the pier for training exercises due to lack of fuel in the Pacific Fleet. That was in 2003. But - you can expect that we'll play hell getting oil if the balloon goes up. No Oil - you can't move an Aircraft Carrier (need's conventionally powered escorts). Without moving carriers - you can't project American Airpower.

**We now officially have an aging Submarine fleet. The Los Angeles Fast Attacks and the Ohio SSBN / SSGN's make up the bulk of the fleet - they are 1970's designs. I recently went on a 688i (in the last two months) - and what I found was an aging old lady - not at all the bright shiny 688 I first reported aboard in 1983. We are building new SSN's at about the rate of one per year I think. That's ... really not fast enough to replace these geriatric 688's.

**We don't have enough Carriers. In fact - we're now using Amphibs as the major flatop. Carrier Battle Groups are out and now the "Expeditionary Strike Group" is in. Problem is - these ESG's are extremely vulnerable because they don't have the defensive air canopy that Carriers do. Don't get me wrong - we still deploy Carrier Battle Groups - but to fill in the gaps we use ESG's. Those ESG's have a lot of vulnerable people in them (they carry a full Marine Expeditionary Unit along with escorts) .

*I don't care who you are or what castle you think you're sitting in - if the rest of the playground wants to take you down - they'll do it.

*America is in the middle of a vast moral erosion. No, strike that - we're at the end of it. The Chinese may have some divisions coming but let me tell you - THEY ARE FOCUSED. This applies to the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Taiwanese, etc. The coming age is about ASIA - not the Americas - not even close.

*If you want to talk about division - we have some coming in this country. We have not been this polarized and angry at each other since just before the civil war. That is NOT going to be resolved peacefully. Hard to see how the U.S. will dominate when we're fractured to pieces.

And that IS coming.