Storify version with twitter links at: http://storify.com/CK_MacLeod/expononsensiation; Sulia version at http://sulia.com/ck_macleod/f/5da98765-e1d1-477a-ba35-e5befb2c4e82/
“Counterfactual certitude fallacy” would be a corollary of historical fallacy, as in any claim of certainty that a simple alteration of a particular fatal decision would have necessarily led to an on-balance better course of subsequent events.